The Impact of Iraqi State’s Political Division on Islamic Republic of Iran’s Internal National Security (An Analytical Research from Scenario Planning Perspective)

Abstract

Explaining and analyzing the security issues and in particular the factors that have impact on the national security of the states constitutes one of the central points of research and focus for the states and political actors. This is due to the fact that national security is vital and key for security, survival and development of all nations and states. Meanwhile, it is evident that ethnic, racial, and sectarian conflicts can seriously endanger the national security and survival of states both domestically and externally. 

Since its establishment up until 2023, Iraq is among the countries that has faced numerous domestic and regional conflicts in the region it is located. In this regards it can be said that Iraq has similar characteristic with Iran in terms of ethnic, sectarian, energy and geography traits. Therefore, it could be said that any political, security development, change of political system or even partition of Iraq would directly affect the position of Iran and its national security interests. It is clear that following regime change in Iraq in 2003, sectarian conflicts among Iraqi factions have intensified and the influence of regional and international actors on this country have significantly increased. In this regard, Iraq has become the battlefield of rival regional and international actors and specifically Iran and the U.S.A.

In addition to the post-2003 sectarian conflicts and foreign interventions, the Kurdistan independence referendum in September 2017 has also further complicated the situation in Iraq, which makes the future of Iraq as a country uncertain and unpredictable. Hence, this study within the context of the method of futures studies and scenario planning attempts to explore the impacts of possible disintegration or partition of Iraq over the demotic and national security of Iran.