Modeling Non-Homogenous Poisson Process and Estimating the Intensity Function for Earthquake Occurrences in Iraq using Simulation for data from January 1st  2018 to April 30th  2023

khwazbeen Saida Fatah

doi:10.21271/ZJPAS.36.3.8

Authors

khwazbeen Saida Fatah Department of Mathematics,College of Science,Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq,

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21271/ZJPAS.36.3.8

Keywords:

Nonhomogeneous Poisson process, Intensity function, Earthquake Occurrence, Simulation..

Abstract

The Non-homogeneous Poisson Process, with time-dependent intensity functions, is commonly used to model the scenario of counting the number of events that appear to occur in a given time interval. The identification of the process relies on the functional form of the intensity function, which can be difficult to determine. In this paper, a Non-Homogenous Poisson Process model is proposed to predict the intensity function for the number of earthquake occurrences in Iraq; the constructed model allows anticipating the number of earthquakes that occur at any time interval with a specific time length. Then, to estimate the model parameters, the data obtained from the annual reports of the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) from January 1^st 2018 to April 30^th 2023 are used. Moreover, a simulation study is conducted and a new algorithm is introduced to show the performance and applicability of the proposed model.

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