The Impact of Economic Conflicts Between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government on Political Stability in the Kurdistan Region (2014-2024)

Abstract

Since 2003, the conflict between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have extended beyond political and nationalistic dimensions. Additional factors have emerged that deepened these conflicts, particularly the presence of substantial reserves of natural resources-especially oil and natural gas. These resources have intensified the disputes, as the Kurdistan Region has sought economic autonomy through the independent production and sale of its oil resources. Conversely, the federal government has pursued a policy of centralization in managing natural wealth, seeking to maintain control over the region by directing both oil and non-oil revenues to the federal treasury.

In 2014, these disputes culminated in the federal government’s suspension of the KRG’s share of the national budget. Further escalation occurred in 2023, when a binding decision was issued to halt oil exports by the KRG. These actions significantly weakened the region’s economic situation and adversely affected its political, economic, and social stability—particularly the political equilibrium. This instability triggered widespread public dissatisfaction, manifested in mass protests and increased pressure on the regional government. It also led to a deep erosion of trust among political parties within the Kurdistan Region and hindered the ability of government institutions to deliver public services and fulfill their obligations. These consequences have directly impacted the internal relations between political actors in the KRG, as well as the region’s external relations with neighboring and allied countries.